Análisis y proyección del balance energético del Perú mediante el modelo LEAP

Alex Avila-Toapanta; Erik Caicedo-Vaca; Yadyra Ortiz-Gonzalez

Autores/as

Avila-Toapanta Alex Universidad Técnica de Cotopaxi. Latacunga, Ecuador.
Caicedo-Vaca Erik Universidad Técnica de Cotopaxi. Latacunga, Ecuador.
Ortiz-Gonzalez Yadyra Universidad Técnica de Cotopaxi. Latacunga, Ecuador.

Palabras clave:

Balance energético, proyección energética, sostenibilidad, sistema eléctrico, planificación

Resumen

DOI: https://doi.org/10.46296/ig.v9i17.0328

Resumen

El propósito de esta investigación fue examinar y proyectar el balance energético del Perú a través del modelo LEAP, para poder evaluar cómo ha ido cambiando la demanda de energía y qué consecuencias tiene eso para una planificación sostenible. La expansión industrial y demográfica ha propiciado un aumento sostenido en el consumo energético, lo que genera una presión creciente sobre la oferta y hace que se dependa mucho de los combustibles fósiles. Este es el principal problema detectado. Los resultados indican que, en el escenario de referencia, la demanda nacional crece de 507.243 PJ en 2020 a 907.222 PJ en 2050, con una tasa anual aproximada del 1.96 %. Lo que demuestra la eficacia de las tecnologías eficientes y de la generación distribuida. Los diagramas de Sankey también muestran que el sistema sufre pérdidas constantes entre el 40 % y el 44 %. La implementación de LEAP se ha vuelto una opción técnica sólida para guiar las políticas energéticas, mejorar la infraestructura y fomentar una transición energética sustentable en el Perú.

Palabras clave: Balance energético, proyección energética, sostenibilidad, sistema eléctrico, planificación.

Abstract

The purpose of this research was to examine and project Peru's energy balance using the LEAP model, in order to assess how energy demand has changed and what consequences this has for sustainable planning. Industrial and demographic expansion has led to a sustained increase in energy consumption, generating growing pressure on supply and making the country heavily dependent on fossil fuels. This is the main problem identified. The results indicate that, in the baseline scenario, national demand grows from 507,243 PJ in 2020 to 907,222 PJ in 2050, with an approximate annual growth rate of 1.96%. This demonstrates the effectiveness of efficient technologies and distributed generation. Sankey diagrams also show that the system suffers constant losses between 40% and 44%. The implementation of LEAP has become a solid technical option for guiding energy policies, improving infrastructure, and fostering a sustainable energy transition in Peru.

Keywords: Energy balance, energy projection, sustainability, electrical system, planning.

Información del manuscrito:
Fecha de recepción: 11 de noviembre de 2025.
Fecha de aceptación: 12 de enero de 2026.
Fecha de publicación: 19 de febrero de 2026.

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