Análisis y proyección del balance energético del Perú mediante el modelo LEAP

Alex Avila-Toapanta; Erik Caicedo-Vaca; Yadyra Ortiz-Gonzalez

Authors

Avila-Toapanta Alex Universidad Técnica de Cotopaxi. Latacunga, Ecuador.
Caicedo-Vaca Erik Universidad Técnica de Cotopaxi. Latacunga, Ecuador.
Ortiz-Gonzalez Yadyra Universidad Técnica de Cotopaxi. Latacunga, Ecuador.

Keywords:

Energy balance, energy projection, sustainability, electrical system, planning

Abstract

DOI: https://doi.org/10.46296/ig.v9i17.0328

Abstract

The purpose of this research was to examine and project Peru's energy balance using the LEAP model, in order to assess how energy demand has changed and what consequences this has for sustainable planning. Industrial and demographic expansion has led to a sustained increase in energy consumption, generating growing pressure on supply and making the country heavily dependent on fossil fuels. This is the main problem identified. The results indicate that, in the baseline scenario, national demand grows from 507,243 PJ in 2020 to 907,222 PJ in 2050, with an approximate annual growth rate of 1.96%. This demonstrates the effectiveness of efficient technologies and distributed generation. Sankey diagrams also show that the system suffers constant losses between 40% and 44%. The implementation of LEAP has become a solid technical option for guiding energy policies, improving infrastructure, and fostering a sustainable energy transition in Peru.

Keywords: Energy balance, energy projection, sustainability, electrical system, planning.

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