Evaluación prospectiva del riesgo de inundación urbana en la ciudadela La Fortaleza, Portoviejo, Ecuador

Marcia Yamel Pin-Morán; Melanie Michelle Lino-Sánchez

Autores/as

Pin-Morán Marcia Yamel Docente de la Carrera de Ingeniería Civil; Universidad Estatal del Sur de Manabí; Jipijapa, Ecuador. https://orcid.org/0009-0003-4493-1931
Lino-Sánchez Melanie Michelle Investigadora independiente. Ecuador. https://orcid.org/0009-0006-9072-2454

Palabras clave:

escorrentía pluvial; vulnerabilidad territorial; drenaje urbano; resiliencia comunitaria; gestión preventiva

Resumen

DOI: https://doi.org/10.46296/ig.v9i18.0361

Resumen

Las inundaciones urbanas constituyen una amenaza recurrente en sectores de Portoviejo, donde la concentración de escorrentía superficial, las limitaciones temporales o permanentes del drenaje y la ocupación urbana incrementan la exposición de viviendas y vías. El estudio tuvo como objetivo evaluar prospectivamente el riesgo de inundación urbana en la ciudadela La Fortaleza mediante la integración de antecedentes de afectación, condiciones del sistema de drenaje, exposición territorial y escenario climático 2026–2027. Se desarrolló una investigación aplicada, no experimental y de estudio de caso, sustentada en triangulación documental y análisis de información científica, municipal, hidrometeorológica y periodística verificable correspondiente principalmente al período 2025–2026. El riesgo se interpretó mediante cuatro componentes: amenaza, exposición, vulnerabilidad y capacidad de respuesta. Los resultados evidenciaron recurrencia de inundaciones durante 2025, con anegamiento de calles, ingreso de agua a viviendas y afectación de bienes; durante 2026 se observaron acumulaciones de agua, sedimentos y dificultades de movilidad simultáneas a la ejecución del nuevo sistema hidrosanitario. La construcción de infraestructura pluvial constituye un aumento de la capacidad de respuesta, aunque persiste un riesgo residual mientras el sistema completa su implementación y demuestra su desempeño ante precipitaciones extremas. El fortalecimiento de El Niño previsto para finales de 2026 incrementa la pertinencia de la vigilancia preventiva. Se concluye que La Fortaleza requiere evaluación hidrológico-hidráulica detallada, monitoreo de puntos críticos y actualización del mapa local de riesgo.

Palabras clave: escorrentía pluvial; vulnerabilidad territorial; drenaje urbano; resiliencia comunitaria; gestión preventiva.

Abstract

Urban flooding constitutes a recurrent hazard in sectors of Portoviejo, where surface-runoff concentration, temporary or permanent drainage limitations and urban occupation increase the exposure of dwellings and roads. This study aimed to prospectively assess urban flood risk in La Fortaleza neighbourhood by integrating documented impacts, drainage-system conditions, territorial exposure and the 2026–2027 climate scenario. An applied, non-experimental case-study design was adopted, based on documentary triangulation and analysis of scientific, municipal, hydrometeorological and verifiable journalistic information, mainly for 2025–2026. Risk was interpreted through four components: hazard, exposure, vulnerability and response capacity. Results showed recurrent flooding during 2025, including flooded streets, water entering dwellings and damage to household belongings. During 2026, water accumulation, sediment deposition and mobility constraints were documented while the new hydrosanitary system was under construction. The implementation of new stormwater infrastructure represents an improvement in response capacity; however, residual risk remains while the system is completed and its performance under extreme precipitation is verified. The strengthening El Niño event expected towards the end of 2026 further increases the relevance of preventive monitoring. It is concluded that La Fortaleza requires detailed hydrological-hydraulic assessment, monitoring of critical points and continuous updating of the local flood-risk map to support preventive decision-making.

Keywords: surface runoff; territorial vulnerability; stormwater drainage; community resilience; preventive management.

Información del manuscrito:
Fecha de recepción: 15 de junio de 2026.
Fecha de aceptación: 20 de agosto de 2026.
Fecha de publicación: 15 de septiembre de 2026.

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